All Player Stats - Data From KSoD Website

[ObiTwo]

For a while, there was enough of a gap in the squad that most were L7 or L8... if I included my L10 - we got paired with 10 L10s, If I didn’t, they got a mix of L7-9s and had a decent chance. Now, most of the squad is L5s due to auto fill. The new players want to war, but don’t understand what will happen if the matchmaking. We lost a lot of L6/7/8s when wars were pretty lopsided. They just found other games.

If you keep your average base score of the war team below 2000 you will avoid those massive mismatches. That means you can join in the war with your level 10 base, as long as you take a low enough supporting team, such as 8s/7s/6s/5s/4s etc so that your total base score is below about 30,000 base score combined. Even if you have to throw a couple of 3s into the war to bring it down, better to waste their 6 attacks than get a completely unwinnable match up.

[legofanatikeren]

I've noticed a grassroot-trend over this last week.
Up till now, ObiWanKenobi has dutifully and reliably forwarded updates on the numbers every month or so, which was then made into a simple chart by DeathStriker, and then I remade it a bit to better predict stuff. And so, naturally we can't know what happens with the curve, as it were, in-between the updates.

This is a core thing to recognize, because it is a big weakness of regression graphs in general, and I'm seeing something that for me at least is very interesting over this last week, because I started plotting in updates every other day or so, starting from the day after I made my last prediction here. Instead of adding to the graph every month or so, like hitherto, the points are now much more refined and as anyone can tell you, the more points being part of a regression, the better

It's actually going up. Not the numbers of players, Gods forbid, but the functions are flattening out ever sooo slightly. I've this far added about 20 days of healthy thrive to the game, which indeed is not very impressive sounding, but considering the data up till now is riddled with holes the size of 25-40something days at times, and I'm suddenly (again) being reminded that I shouldn't think my models (or anyone's) are perfect.

My main question I have to ask myself now is, has the earlier data been similar? If so, or even remotely so, then there's an even bigger, more important trend no-one has picked up yet. If players drop in stages, rather than in a straight line, that to me is interesting. In a month's time, I'll have enough data to see what goes on between one monthly update and the next, as we're seen so far.

… Or maybe it's a coincidence… I've got the Law of Big Numbers against me this early on, after all.

[PhoenixAZ1899]

Supposedly, Mark Twain once said that there are three kinds of lies: lies, d*mn lies, and statistics. No idea if that's a true anecdote, but you get the point: it's hard to get truth from statistics because they can be used almost any way. Now, I think Lego has been magnificently honest and done a good service, but, as others like LosVega and even Lego himself have pointed out, there are just too many holes in the data for us to have any real idea of what is going on. There are so many things we don't know (like, as several of us have said, how many players are out there who don't join a squad). Another thing that might throw numbers off, especially the number of squads, is that there are more than a few "squads" out there that exist *just* for war. That is, they have not regular population of players, but they might be a family's war squad that they jump into, or it might be a "squad" made to be populated with clone minis but with one or two higher levels in order to get each mismatches and earn free, sandbagged reputation points.

There are just so many variables that we don't know that it's impossible to say. For those who have been around from the beginning, there have been so many times we were *sure* the game was going under: mismanagement, poor decisions, and dark times indicated imminent shut-down. Will the game be here in 5 months? 10 months? Who knows? Will this Rise to Power game kill SWC?

The game is obviously making money, because the lights are on, and we know the mouse would kill it in a second if it lost money. Even though SWC probably makes very little money, Disney probably puts pennies into maintaining it, so any return on investment is a win for them.

For those who are thinking "tl;dr," my big idea is that we simply can't predict any trends. We can say what we observe both from the KSOD website and our own experience, but that's about it. We've seen the sky falling so many times before, who knows when the end will actually come?

In the meanwhile, enjoy the game and your squads as best you can.While this game has been a real pain in the neck for me many times, I also have to admit it's been a lot of fun, and introduced me to a lot of great people. I'll ride that bull till the 8-second horn blows or he bucks me off any day.

[Midge]

Supposedly, Mark Twain once said that there are three kinds of lies: lies, d*mn lies, and statistics. No idea if that's a true anecdote, but you get the point: it's hard to get truth from statistics because they can be used almost any way. Now, I think Lego has been magnificently honest and done a good service, but, as others like LosVega and even Lego himself have pointed out, there are just too many holes in the data for us to have any real idea of what is going on. There are so many things we don't know (like, as several of us have said, how many players are out there who don't join a squad). Another thing that might throw numbers off, especially the number of squads, is that there are more than a few "squads" out there that exist *just* for war. That is, they have not regular population of players, but they might be a family's war squad that they jump into, or it might be a "squad" made to be populated with clone minis but with one or two higher levels in order to get each mismatches and earn free, sandbagged reputation points.

There are just so many variables that we don't know that it's impossible to say. For those who have been around from the beginning, there have been so many times we were *sure* the game was going under: mismanagement, poor decisions, and dark times indicated imminent shut-down. Will the game be here in 5 months? 10 months? Who knows? Will this Rise to Power game kill SWC?

The game is obviously making money, because the lights are on, and we know the mouse would kill it in a second if it lost money. Even though SWC probably makes very little money, Disney probably puts pennies into maintaining it, so any return on investment is a win for them.

For those who are thinking "tl;dr," my big idea is that we simply can't predict any trends. We can say what we observe both from the KSOD website and our own experience, but that's about it. We've seen the sky falling so many times before, who knows when the end will actually come?

In the meanwhile, enjoy the game and your squads as best you can.While this game has been a real pain in the neck for me many times, I also have to admit it's been a lot of fun, and introduced me to a lot of great people. I'll ride that bull till the 8-second horn blows or he bucks me off any day.

Well said!

The lights will go off eventually. And these numbers are bleak, as are the declining revenue numbers ... but who knows how much Disney cares as long as it is making SOME money maybe they keep it up and running just in case they decide they want to go back to it and make a push.

Would be nice to see some growth though ... and to get that ... they will have to get behind it in some shape or form.

[DarkRebel]

I am sure PhoenixAZ is a writer in his real world, as he always writes well. Good post.

Though ...

I don't think statistics lies, but rather the incompleteness of it can lead to bad conclusion. That's 100% true.

I do look at statistics as indicators, and also look at other factors in forming my own opinion.

And my opinion of this game, is that the player base is shrinking and has been shrinking in the past few years.

I am seeing this everywhere.

I am seeing this from my own squads, number of players attacking to my base, the number of available bases during search, number of players participating in conflicts (conflict rank and percentage can tell you how many players participating), in squad war match making (now takes longer for rebs).

Everywhere, all indicators are pointing to a downward trend. Now, at what rate, nobody knows. But it is going down.

I do still enjoy the game. It's a very good game despite many flaws. And it's STAR WARS.

[ObiWanKenobi2016]

The latest stats

[ObiWanKenobi2016]

The figures show:
The Empire faction has decreased from 108,473 to 98,905. A loss of 9,568 commanders.

The Rebel faction has decreased from 80,291 to 76,843. A loss of 3,445 commanders.

The faction split is now 56.3:43.2 in the Empire's favour.

Faction balance is coming closer each month.

[DeathStriker]

KSoD Statistics Trend Analysis - UPDATE #4

Using the "initial data" and various Screenshots posted by ObiWanKenobi2016 I put the data for SQUAD TOTALS and COMMANDER TOTALS for each FACTION into Microsoft Excel and created two "Trend Charts" as follows:

SWC Squads by Faction Trend Analysis

(Click here to view LARGER image)

SWC Commanders by Faction Trend Analysis

(Click here to view LARGER image)

DATA SOURCES:

• 8/30/17 - Here
• 10/9/17 - Here
• 11/2/17 - Here
• 11/8/17 - Here (Pre-GR Balance Update #1)
• 11/14/17 - Here (Post-GR Balance Update #1)
• 12/2/17 - Here
• 1/5/18 - Here
• 2/2/18 - Here
• 2/28/18 - Here
• 4/3/18 - Here
• 5/4/18 - Here
• 6/1/18 - Here (Post-Solo Movie)
• 7/2/18 - Here (Post-GR Balance Update #2)
• 8/1/18 - Here

ANALYSIS:

• The overall "trend" for the number of Squad per Faction shows a continued slight ⬆ Increase.
  
  
  • ADDITIONAL NOTE: The increase in Squads is due to Squads moving their Members to New Squads some created sole for War.
• The overall "trend" for the number of Commanders per Faction shows a continued ⬇ Decrease.
  
  
  • ADDITIONAL NOTE: The number of Empire Faction Commanders is now showing LESS than the number of Rebel Faction Commanders nearly a year ago.

Post below any comments both Pro and Con...

[JARJAR]

very strange, KSOD says that my last login was 3 hours ago but I was in bed at that time

[spootieho]

if they keep having errors, they will continue to lose more players.

Support acts as if we are supposed to expect and anticipate errors. It's gotten to that point a while back. They have their heads up their asses.